Heavy Truck Exports and New Energy Dual-Driven: Peak Season Recovery Shows Resilience(Oct 10)

Heavy Truck Exports and New Energy Dual-Driven: Peak Season Recovery Shows Resilience

September Sales Data

Data shows that September heavy truck wholesale sales reached 95,000 units, up 10% month-on-month and down 10% year-on-year. Domestic sales were 67,000 units (down 20% year-on-year), while exports reached 40,000 units (up 21% year-on-year). New energy heavy truck domestic sales were 33,000 units, with a penetration rate reaching 49%, up 37% year-on-year. Natural gas heavy trucks were suppressed by high gas prices, declining 63% year-on-year.

Exports and New Energy as Key Growth Drivers

Recent institutional research reports indicate that September's month-on-month recovery was mainly driven by seasonal warming and increased logistics activity, while year-on-year pressure stemmed from four factors: high base effect, AEBS regulation pull-forward, low freight rates, and narrowing oil-gas price spread. The reports suggest that exports and new energy have become the most certain incremental drivers.

Export Market Expansion

Africa, Latin America, and other markets continue to see volume growth, with full-year exports expected to reach 450,000 units. China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (Sinotruk) has seen its export sales exceed half of total sales, with exports covering over 150 countries and regions, focusing on Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East. The company has held the industry's top export position for 21 consecutive years.

New Energy Penetration Nearing 50%

New energy penetration rate is approaching 50%, with rigid replacement in short-haul scenarios combined with high oil prices driving medium-to-long-haul electrification. Full-year penetration rate is expected to reach 40%-41%. From January to August, the new energy heavy truck market sold nearly 200,000 units cumulatively, up 70% year-on-year.

Q4 Outlook

Domestic sales remain under short-term pressure, but Q4 is expected to maintain September levels, with the true turning point potentially awaiting the implementation of National V replacement policies. Leading enterprises, through export structure optimization and new energy scale effects, are seeing improved per-vehicle profitability. Current valuations are at low levels, offering allocation value.

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