Natural Rubber Pricing Center Undergoing Systemic Reshaping: Prices Hit 9-Year High Before Pulling Back(Oct 28)

Natural Rubber Pricing Center Undergoing Systemic Reshaping: Prices Hit 9-Year High Before Pulling Back

Source: Jin10 Futures / Guoyuan Futures

Since early August, international natural rubber market prices have launched from their cyclical lows for the year, breaking through previous consolidation ranges and accelerating upward. Entering October, the rally intensified, particularly after the National Day holiday, as geopolitical tensions escalated and energy and chemical product prices surged. The domestic rubber futures main contract broke above the 20,000 yuan/ton mark, reaching a more than 9-year high. During this period, raw material prices in Thailand, a major overseas production area, soared in tandem.

However, after prices hit cyclical highs, market sentiment began to shift subtly. With absolute prices elevated, downstream tire manufacturers' resistance to high-priced raw materials intensified, and negative feedback gradually emerged. Meanwhile, some bullish positions chose to take profits. As a result, rubber futures came under pressure after touching cyclical peaks, ending the previous one-sided uptrend and entering a new phase of high-level consolidation and long-short tug-of-war.

The natural rubber market is currently in a deep game between "long-cycle capacity peaking" and "short-cycle high-price suppression." From a long-cycle perspective, the rigid contraction on the supply side is irreversible, and the pricing center of natural rubber is undergoing systemic reshaping. However, from a short-cycle perspective, the surge in absolute prices is causing severe pain across the industrial chain, with terminal demand's capacity to absorb high costs approaching a critical point, and negative feedback risk accumulating.

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